Generative artificial intelligence (AI) could disrupt the global work market and replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs, a report by global investment banking giant Goldman Sachs says.
“If generative AI delivers on its promised capabilities, the labor market could face significant disruption,” the report says. Some two-thirds of current jobs in the United States and Europe are exposed to some degree of automation by AI, Goldman said, adding that “generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work”.
However, automation also means new jobs and a productivity boom, and economic growth, raising annual global GDP by 7% if “it delivers on its promise”, the investment bank said. The report noted that 60% of workers today are employed in occupations that did not exist in 1940, signifying over 85% of employment growth over the last 80 years in new positions driven by technology
“Although the impact of AI on the labor market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are thus more likely to be complemented rather than substituted by AI,” said the report, written by Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani.
What is Generative AI?
Generative AI, is a type of artificial intelligence that is capable of generating new and original content after being trained on a massive dataset. It gained popularity in recent months following the launch to the public of OpenAI’s ChatGPT which can hold conversations and generate anything from coding to poetry in response to user prompts. Google followed up with its own AI chatbot Bard.
According to Goldman Sachs, the generative AI technologies such as ChatGPT, DALL-E, and LaMDA, have three main characteristics:
- Generalized rather than specialized use cases.
- Ability to generate human-like output rather than merely describe or interpret existing information.
- Approachable interfaces that both understand and respond with natural language, images, audio, and video.
Which industries are at risk of AI automation?
Office and administrative support, legal professions, architecture, and engineering were the occupations at the highest risk from automation, Goldman found. Jobs with the lowest exposure to AI include installation and repair, cleaning, maintenance, construction, and crafts.
The industries exposed to AI automation in the US, according to Goldman Sachs:
- Office and administrative support – 46%
- Legal – 44%
- Architecture and engineering – 37%
- Life, physical, and social science – 36%
- Business and financial operations – 35%
- Management – 32%
- Sales and related – 31%
- Computer and mathematical – 29%
- Farming, fishing, and forestry – 28%
- Healthcare practitioners and technical – 28%
- Educational instruction and library – 27%
- All industries – 25%
